The Henry Hub price — what it means for your winter bill
Author : Seenra Energ | Published On : 24 Oct 2026
Henry Hub is the US benchmark price for natural gas. When it hits $5 per MMBtu, retail bills follow within 60 days. The 5-year chart and forecast.
TL;DR
- Henry Hub in Louisiana is the US benchmark price for natural gas. Every state retail gas tariff references it directly or indirectly.
- When Henry Hub spot price exceeds $5 per MMBtu, US retail residential gas bills typically rise 8 to 18 percent within 60 days.
- The 2026 winter futures curve prices Henry Hub at $4.20 to $5.80 per MMBtu through January. Lock gas before the winter ramp if your zone tracks Henry Hub closely.
Henry Hub in Louisiana is the US benchmark price for natural gas. Every state retail gas tariff and almost every commercial gas contract references it directly or indirectly. When Henry Hub spot price exceeds $5 per MMBtu, US retail residential gas bills typically rise 8 to 18 percent within 60 days. The 2026 winter futures curve prices Henry Hub at $4.20 to $5.80 per MMBtu through January. Locking gas supply before the winter ramp captures the pre-rise window.
What Henry Hub actually is
Henry Hub is a physical pipeline interconnection point in Erath, Louisiana where 16 pipelines meet. NYMEX natural gas futures settle to the Henry Hub spot price.
Most US retail gas tariffs include a commodity component that tracks Henry Hub. When Henry Hub moves up, the wholesale cost component of retail gas tariffs moves up after a 30-to-60-day lag.
How Henry Hub flows into your bill
Step 1: Henry Hub spot price moves. Step 2: gas utilities adjust their wholesale procurement cost in the next quarterly tariff filing. Step 3: the new tariff takes effect and customers see the new commodity rate on their next bill.
Total lag from Henry Hub move to retail bill change: typically 30 to 60 days. Locked supplier rates insulate this entire cycle for the contract term.
The 2026 winter outlook
The 2026 winter futures curve prices Henry Hub at $4.20 to $5.80 per MMBtu through January 2027. That is above the long-run average ($3.20 over 2015 to 2023) but below the 2022 peak ($8.10 in August 2022).
If actual storage withdrawals exceed the forecast (cold winter), Henry Hub could spike above $7 in January-February. Locked customers are insulated; variable customers absorb the spike.
