The 2026 Henry Hub natural gas price outlook

Author : Seenra Energ | Published On : 24 Oct 2026

EIA STEO projects Henry Hub at $3.42/MMBtu in 2026, up 14 percent YoY. LNG export demand + cooler-than-average winter outlook. The bill-impact math.

TL;DR

• EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook projects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices averaging $3.42 per MMBtu in 2026, up 14 percent from 2025.
• Drivers: growing LNG export demand, retiring coal generation increasing gas-fired marginal pricing, and a colder-than-average winter outlook.
• Forecast implies residential gas bills 8 to 14 percent higher in winter 2026-27 vs 2025-26. Locking the supply rate captures the pre-forecast curve.

EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook projects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices averaging $3.42 per MMBtu in 2026, up 14 percent from 2025. Drivers: growing LNG export demand, retiring coal generation increasing gas-fired marginal pricing, and a colder-than-average winter outlook. Forecast implies residential gas bills 8 to 14 percent higher in winter 2026-27 vs 2025-26.

Forecast drivers

LNG export demand: 2026 sees 4 new LNG export facilities online (Plaquemines Phase 2, Corpus Christi Stage 3, Rio Grande). Combined export capacity adds 7 BCF/day.

Coal retirements: 8 GW of coal generation retires in 2026, replaced primarily by gas. Gas-for-power demand grows. Cold-weather forecast adds risk above baseline.

Bill-impact math

A typical US household using 80 therms/month at $1.20/therm in winter spends $96/month on gas commodity. 2026 forecast 14 percent higher implies $109/month.

Locking the supply rate in August-October captures pre-forecast pricing. Locked customers paid the same November rate through 2025 winter spikes.

https://seenra.com/blog/2026-henry-hub-natural-gas-price-outlook