Oil rarely waits for a good time to move. On Thursday, October 22, 2026, Brent crude jumped 3% to $112.17 a barrel. That was its highest price since May 18.

Fresh attacks in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf drove the surge. Now traders want to know how far it can run. A Brent crude Elliott Wave analysis offers one road map. Elliott Wave is a chart method that reads price as five-wave pushes with the trend, followed by three-wave pullbacks against it.

Smart Wave Analysis also published its full Brent wave count from October 22 for readers who want more detail.

Quick answer: Brent rose 3.08% to $112.17 on October 22, 2026, after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia and reports of ships hit near the Strait of Hormuz. On the daily chart, Smart Wave Analysis counts Brent in wave 5 up. Its targets are $115.52 and $126.59. The count fails on a daily close below $96.56.

Why Oil Jumped on October 22

Brent gained $3.35 to reach $112.17 by 08:18 GMT, Reuters reported. It touched $112.55 earlier in the session. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the main US oil benchmark, rose 2.76% to $99.83.

Several supply worries hit the market at once:

• Saudi Arabia: Yemen's Houthis struck several targets on Wednesday. At least one person died at a civilian airport in Dammam. Two more died in a drone attack on a Saudi oil field.
• The Gulf: Iran's IRGC Navy said four vessels caught fire in the northern Gulf. It said three more hit mines west of the Strait of Hormuz. That narrow waterway carried about one-fifth of global oil and LNG supply before the war began.
• Diplomacy: The US State Department ordered some diplomats and family members to leave its missions in Saudi Arabia.
• Libya: A pipeline valve shut, which cut output at the Hamada and Tahara oilfields.
• US inventories: Crude stocks fell by 3.06 million barrels, far more than the 820,000 analysts expected, based on the EIA weekly report.

One factor pulled the other way. Russia agreed to resume US-mediated peace talks with Ukraine as soon as next month. Still, PVM Oil analyst Tamas Varga said he sees no real de-escalation before the US midterm elections.

The Iran war began on February 28. Brent hit a wartime peak of $126.41 on April 30.

How the Elliott Wave Count Reads Brent's Rally

The count starts at the August 5 low of $78.13. Smart Wave Analysis reads the climb since then as a five-wave advance. Elliott called this an impulse. An impulse is the main trend move. It has three rising waves (1, 3 and 5) and two pullbacks (2 and 4).

Wave 4 ended at $96.56. Brent now trades in wave 5, the last leg. Fifth waves often reach new highs. They also often mark the end of a trend.

The targets come from Fibonacci ratios. These are proportions, such as 61.8%, that traders use to estimate how far a wave may travel compared with earlier waves.

The first target sits at $115.52. The second, $126.59, lands almost exactly on the April peak. Old highs often draw sellers back into the market.

Every count also needs an invalidation level. That is the price that proves the view wrong. Here it is $96.56. A daily close below it breaks the count.

Brent Key Levels to Watch

The table below lists the prices that matter most. Support means a price area where buyers have stepped in before.

What Could Change the Picture

Fifth waves sometimes end early after a sharp news spike. Elliott followers call this a truncated fifth. If Brent stalls near $115.52, a pullback toward $104 to $105 could follow. A daily close below $108.81 would be the first warning sign.

WTI deserves a look too. It trades just under the round $100 mark. A daily close above $100 would line it up with Brent's breakout.

News risk cuts both ways. A single calm headline can erase a day's gain.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did oil prices jump on October 22, 2026? Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia, reports of vessels hit near the Strait of Hormuz, a bigger-than-expected drop in US crude stocks and a Libya pipeline shutdown all raised supply fears.

What are the Brent Elliott Wave targets? The daily count points to $115.52 first and $126.59 second. The second target sits near the April 2026 high.

What would break the bullish Brent count? A daily close below $96.56, the wave 4 low. A close below $108.81 would act as an early warning.

What is the difference between Brent and WTI? Brent is the global benchmark, based on North Sea crude and traded on ICE Futures Europe. WTI is the US benchmark, delivered at Cushing, Oklahoma. Brent usually trades a few dollars higher.

The Bottom Line

Brent hit $112.17 on supply fears tied to attacks in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf. The wave count sees wave 5 still in progress, with $115.52 and $126.59 as the levels to watch. It also names the price that proves it wrong: $96.56.

The facts are on the table. The decision stays with the reader.

Disclaimer: This article is for education only and is not financial advice. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Trading oil and other commodities carries a high level of risk, and you can lose money. Elliott Wave counts are probabilities, not certainties. Prices and levels reflect October 22, 2026, and can change quickly. Do your own research before you trade.