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Ethanol Price Trends, Forecast, Chart, Prices and Index | Q2 2026 Global Market Review

Author : price watch | Published On : 24 Sep 2026

The Ethanol Price Trend in Q2 2026 was shaped by a clear difference between supply conditions in the United States and Brazil. While US-linked ethanol markets moved higher because of tighter supply and firm export demand, Brazil-linked markets moved lower as ample sugarcane-based supply created downward pressure. This created a two-way market during the quarter, with importers seeing different price movements depending on the origin of their ethanol.

 

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Ethanol Price Trend in Q2 2026

The second quarter of 2026, covering April through June, was an interesting period for the global ethanol market. Prices did not move in one common direction. Instead, the market showed a strong split between US-origin and Brazil-origin ethanol.

US-linked markets generally recorded price increases throughout Q2. The main reason was relatively tight ethanol availability in the US combined with steady demand from overseas buyers. As export demand remained firm, FOB Houston prices moved higher, and this increase was gradually reflected in import markets around the world.

Brazil followed a different path. Brazil had ample sugarcane-based ethanol supply, which reduced pressure on buyers and pushed FOB Santos prices lower. Import markets purchasing ethanol from Brazil also experienced declines during the quarter.

This difference is important because it shows how ethanol prices can depend heavily on supply origin. Two buyers purchasing the same grade of ethanol can face very different market conditions depending on whether the product is sourced from the US or Brazil.

What Happened to Ethanol Prices During Q2?

Overall, US-linked Ethanol Prices increased across most of the markets covered during Q2 2026. The strongest quarterly increase among the listed US-linked markets was recorded in India, where prices rose by around 16.83%. The Netherlands followed with an increase of approximately 15.09%, while Belgium recorded a rise of about 13.94%.

The United Kingdom also saw a strong increase of around 13.03%. The US domestic export benchmark at FOB Houston increased by approximately 12.94%.

Other US-linked markets also recorded notable gains:

  • Saudi Arabia: about 12.08% higher

  • Colombia: about 11.16% higher

  • South Korea: about 12.55% higher

  • Taiwan: about 8.50% higher

  • Thailand: about 7.53% higher

  • Egypt: about 12.58% higher

  • Indonesia: about 11.54% higher

  • Peru: about 6.69% higher

  • Mexico: about 9.85% higher

  • Philippines: about 12.08% higher

  • Singapore: about 10.24% higher

  • Germany: about 11.23% higher

  • Chile: about 11.96% higher

  • Canada: about 11.57% higher

These numbers show that the increase was not limited to one region. Higher US-origin prices were transmitted into many international markets through import pricing.

US Ethanol Market: Tight Supply Supports Higher Prices

The US market was one of the main drivers of the Q2 ethanol price increase. FOB Houston ethanol prices rose by around 12.94% during the quarter.

The basic market situation was relatively easy to understand. Supply was tighter, while export demand remained firm. When buyers continue looking for material at a time when available supply is more limited, sellers generally have greater pricing strength.

Ethanol demand also remained steady from fuel blending and industrial solvent applications. These uses helped keep the market supported during the quarter.

For international buyers, higher US export prices were then reflected in CIF import markets. The effect could be seen in locations such as Jeddah, Busan, Antwerp, Rotterdam, Nhava Sheva, Hamburg, Singapore, and other major trading destinations.

India Records a Strong Increase

India recorded one of the largest increases among the US-linked markets during Q2 2026. CIF Nhava Sheva prices for US-origin anhydrous ethanol increased by approximately 16.83%.

This shows how changes at the export origin can travel through the international supply chain. When FOB Houston prices rise, buyers importing the product can face higher delivered costs.

India's US-origin ethanol market therefore remained firm through much of the quarter. However, the June movement was different, with prices falling by around 0.78% as procurement activity moderated.

It is a useful reminder that a quarterly increase does not mean prices rise every single month. Markets can move higher over several weeks and then experience a short correction.

European Markets Also Saw Strong Price Growth

The Netherlands and Belgium were among the strongest-performing US-linked markets during Q2.

The Netherlands recorded an increase of around 15.09% for US-origin ethanol delivered to Rotterdam. Belgium saw an increase of approximately 13.94% for US-origin ethanol delivered to Antwerp.

Both markets were supported by higher US FOB values and firm import demand.

The United Kingdom also recorded a quarterly increase of approximately 13.03%. Unlike many other markets, the UK continued to see a small increase in June, with prices rising around 0.77%.

Belgium and the Netherlands also moved higher in June, increasing by approximately 0.41% and 0.92%, respectively. This was different from the broader correction seen across many US-linked destinations.

June 2026 Brought a Market Correction

One of the most important parts of the Q2 2026 story was the change in direction during June.

After moving higher for much of the quarter, many US-linked markets experienced a correction. Buyers moderated procurement, which reduced some of the upward pressure seen earlier in the quarter.

The June declines were different from market to market. Taiwan experienced a particularly sharp monthly decline of around 9.30%. Peru fell by about 13.19%, while Mexico declined by approximately 7.37%.

Thailand dropped around 6.22%, Germany around 6.16%, Indonesia around 5.71%, Chile around 5.61%, and Singapore around 4.01%.

The correction did not completely reverse the quarterly gains, but it showed that buyers were becoming more cautious toward the end of Q2.

Brazil Ethanol Prices Move Lower

Brazil presented the opposite picture.

FOB Santos ethanol prices declined by around 6.74% during Q2 2026. The main factor was ample sugarcane-based ethanol supply, combined with softer export demand.

When supply is readily available, buyers usually have more choice. That can reduce urgency and put downward pressure on prices. This was the basic pattern seen in the Brazilian market during the quarter.

The decline in Brazil also flowed into import markets that source ethanol from the country.

The Philippines saw Brazil-origin ethanol prices fall by approximately 7.26%. Singapore recorded a decline of about 7.18%, while South Korea fell by around 6.94%.

Japan declined by approximately 6.38%, and the Netherlands fell by around 6.14%.

Brazil-Origin Import Markets

The Brazil-linked markets showed a relatively consistent pattern during Q2.

For example, CIF Manila prices for Brazil-origin ethanol declined by around 7.26%. In June, the market fell another 6.36%.

In Singapore, Brazil-origin ethanol declined by around 7.18% during the quarter and another 3.74% in June.

South Korea recorded a quarterly decline of approximately 6.94%, followed by a June decline of about 3.86%.

Japan declined around 6.38% during Q2, with another 4.63% decline in June.

Belgium's Brazil-origin ethanol market decreased approximately 5.54% during the quarter, while June brought another decline of about 4.81%.

India was somewhat different. Brazil-origin ethanol prices declined only around 0.75% during Q2, but the market experienced a more noticeable June correction of approximately 5.79%.

These figures demonstrate that even when markets share the same origin, the size of the price movement can differ according to local buying activity and import conditions.

Understanding the Ethanol Price Chart

The Ethanol Price Chart for Q2 2026 can be viewed as two broad lines moving in opposite directions.

The US-linked line generally moved upward during April and May, supported by tight supply and firm export demand. Many markets then moved lower in June as buyers reduced procurement.

The Brazil-linked line moved downward during the quarter because of ample supply. June added further declines in several Brazil-origin markets.

Looking at the chart this way makes the main Q2 story easier to understand: origin mattered significantly.

Instead of seeing one global ethanol price, buyers and market participants needed to consider where the ethanol was coming from and how much supply was available from that origin.

Ethanol Price Index and Global Market Direction

The Ethanol Price Index during Q2 2026 reflected this supply-driven divergence.

The index was influenced by higher US-linked prices on one side and weaker Brazil-linked prices on the other. This makes the quarter particularly useful for understanding how global ethanol markets respond to regional supply differences.

An index can provide a broad view of the market, but individual trade routes can behave differently. Freight, local demand, procurement timing, and origin-specific supply conditions can all affect the delivered price.

For buyers, this means the headline market direction is only one part of the picture. Looking at individual import destinations and origins can provide a more practical understanding of actual purchasing conditions.

Ethanol Price Forecast: What Q2 2026 Suggests

A simple Ethanol Price Forecast based on the Q2 pattern would need to focus closely on supply and demand rather than assuming that the entire global market will move together.

The Q2 data shows that tight supply can support higher prices when demand remains firm. At the same time, ample availability can create downward pressure even when ethanol demand continues.

The June correction also suggests that buyers can become more cautious after a period of sustained price increases. If procurement slows, prices may lose some of their earlier momentum.

For Brazil-origin markets, continued availability would remain an important factor to watch. For US-origin markets, supply levels and export demand would remain important factors for understanding future price movement.

This is not a fixed prediction of future prices. Rather, it highlights the main market relationships visible in the Q2 2026 data.

Why Ethanol Prices Can Differ Between Countries

Ethanol is traded internationally, but prices do not move exactly the same way everywhere.

A buyer in one country may pay a different price from another buyer because of the origin of the ethanol, shipping costs, local demand, purchasing schedules, and other trade conditions.

The Q2 data provides a clear example. US-origin ethanol became more expensive across many destinations, while Brazil-origin ethanol became cheaper across several of the same destinations.

For example, both Belgium and the Netherlands had higher prices for US-origin ethanol but lower prices for Brazil-origin ethanol. South Korea showed the same broad difference between the two origins.

This makes origin one of the most useful factors to consider when reviewing global ethanol prices.

Key Q2 2026 Ethanol Market Takeaways

Several important points stand out from the quarter:

  • US-origin ethanol prices generally increased during Q2.

  • Tight US supply and firm export demand supported the increase.

  • India recorded the largest listed US-origin quarterly increase at about 16.83%.

  • The Netherlands increased by around 15.09%.

  • Belgium increased by approximately 13.94%.

  • Brazil-origin ethanol prices generally declined.

  • Brazil's FOB Santos price fell by around 6.74%.

  • Ample sugarcane-based supply was the main downward pressure in Brazil.

  • June brought corrections to many markets.

  • Belgium, the Netherlands, and the UK were exceptions among US-linked markets, recording modest June increases.

  • The difference between US and Brazilian supply conditions was a major theme of Q2 2026.

 

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